Dear friends and colleagues,
The horrific Ukraine war will almost certainly lead to negotiations with Vladimir Putin. To prepare to deal successfully with this challenging Russian leader, many analysts offer useful insights into his background, personality, and motivations. Yet direct advice from officials who themselves have extensively negotiated with Putin should inform any future approach.
My business partner and co-author Professor James Sebenius of Harvard Business school along with two of our Harvard colleagues has conducted lengthy videotaped interviews with five former U.S. Secretaries of State that provide the basis for exactly this kind of advice. In the video program linked to this email, Jim and Bob Mnookin present memorable excerpts from these interviews and distill their most important prescriptions.
By themselves, artful moves "at the negotiating table" won't produce results but will benefit from a 3D Negotiation™ approach. Beyond at the table tactics, forging a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine requires determined actions to build sufficient leverage (e.g. via sanctions, military aid to Ukraine, strengthening NATO, etc.). It calls for creatively designed agreements (e.g. whose provisions might include ceasefires, troop withdrawals, Ukraine's relationship to NATO and the EU, the status of the Donbas and Crimea, the ICC role, etc.). Yet transforming such leverage and deal concepts into an actual war-ending accord demands tactical and interpersonal skill. Based on their lengthy personal negotiations with Putin, this video compilation delivers highly relevant insights from Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, and Rex Tillerson.
You can watch this program by clicking here; a transcript is here. (If you prefer a slightly earlier version of this program with "chapters" linked to the introduction, the segments featuring each secretary, and our summary and takeaways, you'll find it here.)
Let me know what you think.
Best,
David Lax |