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�� Weekly Market Commentary
For the week ending June 20, 2025
Prepared for clients of WealthViser Private Wealth
�� What Happened Last Week
Geopolitical tensions pushed markets into risk-off mode.
Markets were rattled by global developments as the G7 Summit in Kananaskis wrapped up early with President Trump abruptly departing to address escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Over the weekend, the U.S. launched a targeted three-site airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering a 10% spike in oil prices. Markets are now watching closely for signs of retaliation, which could further disrupt global energy supply and intensify U.S.-China trade frictions—given China’s reliance on Middle East oil.
Why it matters: Rising oil prices can fuel inflation and weigh on growth-sensitive sectors, though energy holdings may benefit.
Central banks held their ground—no rate changes for now.
The U.S. Federal Reserve left its target rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50%, noting that while the outlook has improved, uncertainty remains. Labour markets are solid, and inflation, though elevated, continues to ease. The Fed remains data-dependent as it weighs whether further action is needed this year.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada released the minutes from its June 4 policy meeting, emphasizing that while the global economy remains resilient, ongoing trade uncertainty (largely driven by tariffs) could dampen momentum. Encouragingly, inflation is continuing to drift closer to historical norms.
Why it matters: Stable policy rates offer near-term predictability, but geopolitical shocks and inflation surprises could shift the narrative quickly.
Consumer data paints a mixed picture.
In Canada, April retail sales edged up 0.3% to $70.1 billion, with motor vehicle and parts dealers leading the gains. In the U.S., May retail sales fell 0.9%, underperforming expectations after a smaller decline in April. The drop was led by lower spending on building materials, gasoline, and vehicles—hinting at some softening in consumer demand.
Why it matters: With consumer spending driving two-thirds of GDP, these trends are worth watching for early signs of economic cooling.
�� What to Watch This Week
In Canada, key data on manufacturing, wholesale trade, weekly earnings, CPI, and GDP will be released.
In the U.S., markets will digest a packed slate of data, including:
��️ Housing market indicators (new, existing, and pending home sales)
��️ Durable goods orders
�� GDP, personal income & spending
�� Retail & wholesale inventories
�� The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the PCE Price Index
On the global stage, watch for China’s industrial profits, Japan’s inflation and labour data, and Eurozone business sentiment indicators.
Franco’s Take
"Market volatility is back in the headlines, but it’s not unexpected. Our portfolios are designed to handle moments like this—through diversification, a disciplined process, and selective exposure to sectors that can benefit from macro shifts, like energy and infrastructure. We’ll continue to monitor risks closely and adjust as needed."
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