Weclome to Super Bowl 52! I give my pick against the spread with data later in this message, but first let's step back and take a brief look at the history of the MPI:
Dr. John F. Murray, clinical and sports psychologist in Palm Beach, Florida invented the Mental Performance Index (MPI), the first ever measure and statistic quantifying "mental performance" in football. In his 2011 book by the same name "Mental Performance Index" Murray provided MPI data analysis on all the Super Bowl games played and demonstrated statistically that this factor was far and away the highest correlate to winning the big game. In regression analyses it predicted the outcome of all games but one (the slop fest between Dallas and Baltimore in 1971). It wasn't even close - greater than 80% correlations were established between mental performance and winning. The next highest correlate, turnovers, were in the 60% range! In fact the study was so exciting that Dr. Murray had to write this book and he revised it in 2013 with a couple more Super Bowl games, much more data and better graphics.
Lesson from this book and this study?
MENTAL PERFORMANCE WHICH HAD BEEN SO LONG GIVEN LIP SERVICE BUT NEVER TRULY STUDIED IN DEPTH OR QUANTIFIED WAS ACTUALLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR OVERALL TO WINNING THE SUPER BOWL
Was this just Dr. Murray's fun delusion or subjective perspective? Clearly not! Let's look at what some of the top people in football wrote in support of this book and study:
"This is a fascinating work of remarkable scope and scholarship. Dr. Murray has devised a valid new way to measure and predict greatness in the game of football."
- Steve Sabol - President of NFL FILMS
"John has done a brilliant job demonstrating the importance of mental toughness and intelligent play in professional football! This is a masterpiece and I am very excited."
-
Doug Blevins, Longtime Kicking Coach for various NFL teams, and NFL Europe Kicking Coordinator for 5 seasons
"Teams that play with collective intelligence consistently win championships. Dr. John F Murray's book helps us finally understand how and why teams play smarter. Read this book and carve out new space in your life for lasting success!"
-
Nick Lowery, New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs & New York Jets Placekicker (1978-1996)
"Everyone is gifted, but not everyone opens the package. Open this package and you will understand the secret advantage that helped keep me in the NFL for 12 years!"
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Jim "Crash" Jensen, Miami Dolphins All Purpose Player (1981-1992)
"Dr. John F. Murray is trailblazing a new frontier in understanding and appreciating football and helping teams win! This is a must read for coaches, reporters and anyone who loves the sport.
-
Jim Martz, Miami Herald sports writer (1970-1990), Editor of Cane Sport (University of Miami fan magazine), Author of 4 football books
The 2013 2nd edition was endorsed with a cover quote by the legendary
Don Shula.
Lesley Visser, the only female inducted into the pro football hall of fame, and America's most beloved sportscaster, wrote the epilogue on coach Bill Walsh.
Tom Flores of 4 Super Bowls and Raiders fame wrote the introduction chapter to this book and raved about the MPI
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS MPI AND BOOK IS VERY SERIOUS AND LIKE MANY EXCITING FINDINGS IN HISTORY AND SCIENCE IT IS AMAZING HOW FEW PEOPLE STILL KNOW ABOUT IT. I AM NOT SURPRISED.
THE DOUBLE SLIT EXPERIMENT (IN QUANTUM MECHANICS) OF THE EARLY 1900S IS STILL ONLY KNOWN BY A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE IN THE WORLD, BUT IT IS ONE OF THE MOST AMAZING DISCOVERIES EVER MADE IN SCIENCE. PEOPLE SIMILARLY STILL DO NOT GRASP HOW ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL MENTAL PERFORMANCE IS TO SUCCESS. I AM PATIENT IF IT TAKES ME 100 YEARS!
The MPI is capable of assessing a football team's performance more precisely than other factors beause it includes in the analysis a critical factor that was and is still ignored.
Using MPI data, Dr. Murray has gone public prior to 9 previous Super Bowl games with his pick against the most common Las Vegas spread, and in 7 of those 9 games he was correct, including last year when he picked the New England Patriots.
He is doing it again this year and if correct he will be 8-2 (80%) agasint the spread in Super Bowl games. If not, 7-3 (70%). What do the numbers show this year? Dr. Murray looked at the MPI scores of the Patriots and the Eagles in their two playoff games and then took an average of those scores to produce the following results:
Patriots
Offense Defense
Special Teams P. Off
P. Def
T Press
MPI Total
.517
.507
.691
.354
.558
.460
.512
.615
.532
.500
.688
.558
.629
.572
Averages
.566
.520
.596
.521
.558
.545
.542
Eagles
Offense
Defense
Special Teams P. Off
P. Def
T Press
MPI Total
.508
.516
.554
.554
.583
.569
.517
.591
.522
.800
.769
.600
.679
.573
Averages
.550
.519
.677
.662
.592
.624
.545
The above categories should be clear. P. Off and P. Def. refer to performance only in pressure situations. The bottom line here is that both teams are playing incredibly well. The Patriots .542 score and the Eagles .545 score are very very close, and since the Patriots are favored in Las Vegas by 4.5 points, it is clear that the correct pick for this game is to take the Eagles and the points! And even though the Eagles have a better MPI score slightly, looking at the offense and defense categories it does appear that the Patriots are a little better but not by 5 points. If I had to guess the outcome of this game based on this data, it looks like a 2 to 4 point Patriots victory ... but taking Eagles + 4.5 would win in that case. Of course if the Eagles get closer or win the game outright, the MPI is right also. If I am wrong, so be it, I have to follow what the data says!
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