OEMs

Are Ford’s fortunes about to take a turn for the good?

Make no mistake, the next 18-24 months will be some of the most important in Ford’s iconic history. Actually, I could say that about a lot of companies and not just automotive ones – but I digress. Ford has 3 ESSENTIAL product launches: the Bronco, the Mustang Mach-E and the granddaddy of them ALL – the F150 – that they HAVE to get right. If they don’t, it might not matter if they’re able to get China cleaned up or not.

To put it more bluntly though, the F150 needs to be a ‘home run’ for them or else their 5-year product plan is going to be missing one key ingredient – funding. One thing we do know is that Ford does trucks ‘right.’ The Bronco should also be a sales winner but even if it doesn’t bring the profit thunder that the F150 does, bringing back this iconic model will breathe some life back into the 116 year old company that they can hopefully turn into momentum going into a 2022 and beyond post Covid-19 US economic recovery.

This will also be a make or break moment for Jim Hackett and determine whether he’s a hero or the goat.

#Ford #Bronco #F150 #Mustang #MachE #biglaunches #IthinkIcan

The pressure to succeed may be getting to VW.

There’s been a ton of upheaval in the auto sector over the last 5-7 years. Several OEMs have had their share of challenges but you could argue the VW Group has gone through the most existentially threatening one due to their diesel-gate scandal. Diesel-gate led to a number of lawsuits, firings, arrests, fines, restructures and leadership changes. It also led to arguably the mother of all company pivots – moving from internal combustion engines to electric powertrains – in the shortest period of time. The billions of €€€ committed, the number of new products across all their brands planned, the partnerships & investments inked, and the need to execute to plan flawlessly have all weighed heavily on the VW management team.

The person leading that pivot, Herbert Diess, has been adamant and seemingly resolute in pushing VW Group to become the world’s largest EV maker much sooner rather than later. This has obviously led to internal conflicts and recent technical (read: software) issues for their brand new ID-3, arguably one of VW’s most important product launches in its storied history that’s set to replace their iconic Golf.

The launch issues left an opening for Diess’s detractors to knock him off his pedestal, taking the VW brand CEO title from him in the process. He still holds the Group CEO title, which is ironic since it seems that they don’t believe Diess can lead one brand but DO BELIEVE he can lead >8 brands.

The growing pains & complexity associated VW for the first time really designing, developing and building software that is to be backbone for one of your most important products was too much to handle apparently. The software development issues shouldn’t come as any surprise. Be it minor or major, we should also expect this from the other automakers as they begin to kick off production of their NEV product offerings.

Something as abrupt & extreme as redefining / remaking an 83-year old car company within a few year time period was bound to p*ss a few people off. First, although he’s an automotive lifer, Diess is still an outsider having made his bones over at Bimmer. Seems like it upset more than a few though and it finally bled into the public. This is where I applaud Diess since there were bound to be power struggles regardless of how ambitious his turnaround plan was going to be. His plan is pretty ambitious.

As other automakers begin to feel the heat – we will likely see similar conflicts (see Ford / Joe Hinrichs) bleed out into the open. That just means the internal battles, aka the ‘politics’ over control of design, engineering, quality, manufacturing & spending decisions – pitting the old guard vs. new guard are still being fought and, in VW’s case – the old guard won this round. That will need to change if VW Group or any other OEM is going to successfully pivot their product lineup in order to compete with Tesla and all the other EV Startups in the US & China that don’t have any baggage to dump.

Tesla went through these growing pains too. I was living in Silicon Valley when they did and from my vantage point, it didn’t seem like they’d make it. It wasn’t until they figured out the right mix of ‘tech’ folks & ‘car’ folks starting with their hiring of Deepak Ahuja (a fellow CMU alum I might add) who’d left Ford to become Tesla’s CFO in 2008, did we really see them begin to ‘hit their stride.’

Have VW Group added any ‘tech’ guys? Has ANY major OEM added any ‘tech’ guys? I mean at significant, decision-making levels? Once we do, it’ll signal that the OEMs are starting to get ‘it.’

#VW #ID3 #growingpains #politics #powerstruggles #softwareissues #bugs #demotion

BATTERIES

Another way to spell ‘1.2M mile battery’: O-V-E-R-E-N-G-I-N-E-E-R-E-D.

CATL is not shying away from the spotlight as they’ve partnered with Tesla to make a long-lasting, Duracell type battery cell that, if as advertised should last for over 1.2M miles / 16 years. CATL further says they’re ready to produce once Tesla gives them the greenlight.

Outside of bragging rights and the shine of saying they’re the first, having an actual battery that lasts that long seems of limited value miles since I don’t know one person that’s kept their car for 1M miles!

How much of this is Tesla tech being licensed to CATL is uncertain but again from a marketing standpoint, it’s definitely a coup for CATL and it implies that CATL batteries last as long, potentially longer than ones from the traditional battery powers – Panasonic & LG Chem – their main competitors outside of China.

#CATL #Tesla #1millionmiles #longlifebattery #overengineered #builditandtheywillcome  

MOBILITY

Didi says its back to business as usual.

The fact that Didi’s China ridehailing business has reached pre-Covid levels doesn’t surprise me. First, the Chinese govt. acted decisively and extremely to contain the pandemic here in China. Second, and this is more anecdotal, I have gone back to calling Didi’s quite often, a few times / week or almost as often as I did pre-Covid days so I could see other consumers also feeling safe enough to trust and use their service again.

Finally, with people cooped up in their homes for multiple months, I think there’s a social ‘itch’ that many folks are anxious to scratch which likely also contributed to increased # of rides. Will that last into the summer – I think it may since there aren’t a lot of options for going away for summer holiday.

My prediction is that this summer, the people that own their vehicles will be ALL about domestic road trips in lieu of traveling abroad this summer but the folks that don’t own their own cars will more often decide to stay local. With the heat of summer, it’ll be much more attractive for those people to call a Didi vs. walking or riding a Mobike.

It could be MUCH different in the US. We could see more of a struggle with Uber & Lyft getting their ridehailing businesses back up to pre-coronavirus levels due to the fact that the US has struggled to contain the virus which could lead to a lingering safety and trust issue. If that’s the case, it’s going to be a VERY long summer for the US ridehailing companies.

#Didi #China #backtonormal #ridehailing #onthewayto100million

EVSTARTUPs

Lucid seems to be taking the right approach.

Taking a much slower, deliberate approach to launching their first product may end up working out much better for Lucid Motors, founded by ex-Tesla Chief Engineer Peter Rawlinson. That delay in funding that led many to believe, including myself, that Lucid may not make it past the prototype stage again, was likely a blessing in disguise since there was no need for them to lay off factory workers and idle an assembly plant, blunting momentum before it even got going.

It also allowed Lucid more time to analyze the market to see where it’s headed post Covid-19. This could be just the ticket for the scrappy startup that’s looking to be ‘friends’ with Tesla but compete directly with Merc and Bimmer at the high end of the luxury sedan market. I think the Lucid Air looks great so far and if the production vehicle specs out where Lucid claims, this will be a VERY formidable opponent for the German brands AND Tesla. It doesn’t hurt that Peter cut his teeth launching that Model S either so he knows where Tesla went wrong and should be able to avoid the same mistakes that Tesla had manufacturing it.

I’ve been keen to chat with someone from Lucid, but like everyone else, my travel plans for the foreseeable future specifically to Detroit and Silicon Valley / CA, are up in the air. Once the borders open back up though, you can bet that I’ll try to head over there to check out their operations.

I have no inside information here but being late to the party could’ve been the best thing that could’ve happened to Lucid. That and the fact that they’re not lining up to market themselves as the next ‘Tesla’ killer. 

#Lucid #Air #Tesla #latetotheparty #readyfor2021