What happened last week?
Equity markets fell on Monday and posted gains for the rest of the week delivering results ranging from 2% for the TSX to nearly 7% for the NASDAQ. The Dow and the S&P 500 fell nicely between providing a 2½% and 4½% lift for the week, respectively. However, the North American indexes are all below their levels at the end of 2024. Recent gains can be attributed to a lessening of the rhetoric surrounding tariffs, which is welcome news for investors, employers and workers. Adding to the positivity are the early corporate results for Q1 2025, where 36% of S&P 500 companies have reported. With slightly more than one-third reporting, 73% have reported a positive earnings per share (EPS) surprise and 64% of companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. Factset Earnings Insight
According to early week reporting, it appears that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be more inclined to lower interest rates sooner than previously communicated. Trump has expressed frustration with Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, and had previously hinted at terminating him. Last week Trump reversed his early opinion. Coincidentally, Chair Powell said that lower rates could arrive this summer, which pleased Trump. An independent central bank that is not beholden to election results is the accepted standard to protect markets and investors, but could still be at-risk in the U.S. CNBC on Trump and Powell
Gold was down slightly for the week after breaching the $3,400 level for the first time. The $30 decline reversed only a small portion of its meteoric rise in 2025, which is nearly 25%.
The uncertainty regarding tariffs and trade barriers will continue to drive markets as progress against inflation, and for employment and economic growth succumbs to pressure from restrictive policy.
What’s ahead for this week and beyond?
In Canada, Monday, April 28th is Election Day with the governing Liberals and their new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, and the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre vying for control of the federal government. Wholesale sales, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations from their last interest rate decision will be released.
In the U.S., wholesale and retail inventories, house price index, consumer confidence, Q1 GDP and the GDP price index will be released. April’s nonfarm payrolls and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will also be reported.
Globally, the Eurozone’s business climate, consumer confidence, inflation and selling price expectations, GDP, Consumer Price Index (CPI), and unemployment, Japan’s employment, retail sales, housing starts, construction orders and leading index, and U.K.’s house price index, consumer credit, mortgage approvals and lending will be announced.
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